Reform UK has secured its first seat on Cardiff Council after a comfortable by-election victory in the Trowbridge ward. The win, which saw Reform candidate Edward Topham take the seat, pushed the Labour Party into third place behind the Liberal Democrats.
Edward Topham secured 1,142 votes (39.6%), a lead of 461 votes over the Liberal Democrats’ Chris Cogger, who received 681 votes (23.6%). Labour’s Gary Bowen-Thomson came in third with 615 votes (21.3%). Plaid Cymru’s Carol Ann Falcon received 223 votes (7.7%), followed by the Conservatives’ Joe Roberts with 90 votes (3.1%), the Green Party’s Jess Ryan with 77 (2.3%) and Propel’s Lennox with 63 (2.2%). The turnout for the by-election was 24.7%.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Labour councillor Chris Lay, who moved to Shropshire for work.
The result marks a significant shift from the 2022 council election, when Labour won all three seats in the Trowbridge ward with a substantial majority. This latest loss is another setback for Labour in Cardiff, following the party’s defeat to the Green Party in an August by-election in Grangetown, although they did retain a seat in Llanrumney in July.
A source within the Labour Party admitted that the outcome was not unexpected. “Having knocked on quite a few doors it was obvious that we were going to lose,” the source said. “Voters who were previously marked as Labour supporters said they wouldn’t be voting, while others must have voted for Reform.” The by-election campaign saw some unusual developments, including the revelation that the Plaid Cymru candidate, Carol Ann Falcon, had previously been a member of Reform UK for several months, claiming she had joined the party as a “spy” to investigate its policies on food banks.
Former First Minister Vaughan Gething, who resigned from his position last year after a controversy over a £200,000 donation from a businessman with a criminal record, was also seen campaigning in the area. Gething has also been a vocal supporter of a proposed business park and railway station in St Mellons.
The Trowbridge result comes just two days after a YouGov poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University indicated a sharp decline in Labour’s support in Wales, with their vote share at just 14%. The poll placed Plaid Cymru in the lead with 30%, closely followed by Reform UK at 29%.
The focus of political attention now shifts to the Senedd by-election in Caerphilly on October 23, caused by the death of Labour MS Hefin David. The contest is expected to be a tight race between Plaid Cymru and Reform, with Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth urging Labour voters to support his party to prevent a Reform victory.
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